Real moments in history that the ancients could have predicted. Each one pairs a myth with an event, shows the mirror between them, and gives the ancient warning that saw it coming.
Human nature has not changed, so the patterns repeat. Read the foreword for why.
Napoleon marches on Moscow · 1812
Flying too close to the sun
The myth
Icarus was given wings and one rule: not too high, not too low. Thrilled by flight, he climbed towards the sun until the wax melted.
What happened: Napoleon marches on Moscow
After a decade of victories, Napoleon led more than 600,000 men into Russia. The Russians retreated, burned what they left behind, and let the winter do the rest. Only a fraction of his army came back, and his empire never recovered.
The mirror
Success teaches the lesson that the rules no longer apply. Icarus and Napoleon both mistook a run of luck for a law of nature.
Nothing in excess. (Carved at the temple of Apollo at Delphi.)
The ancient warning
What is it about success that makes people ignore warnings?
Croesus and the oracle · About 547 BC
Reading the prophecy you want to hear
The myth
Oedipus heard a prophecy and ran from it, straight into the very fate he feared. In Greek myth, a prophecy misunderstood is more dangerous than no prophecy at all.
What happened: Croesus and the oracle
Croesus, the richest king in the world, asked the Delphic oracle whether he should attack Persia. The answer: if he did, he would destroy a great empire. He attacked. The empire he destroyed was his own.
The mirror
This is a mirror the Greeks held up themselves: the historian Herodotus told the story of Croesus as a lesson in hearing only what you hope for.
Call no one happy until they are dead. (The wise Athenian Solon to Croesus, as told by Herodotus.)
The ancient warning
Why do we hear what we want to hear? Can you think of a time it happened to you?
Xerxes whips the Hellespont · 480 BC
Punishing the sea
The myth
The gods of Greek myth punish those who treat the natural world, and the gods themselves, with contempt. Ajax the Lesser defied the gods and was drowned by Poseidon.
What happened: Xerxes whips the Hellespont
When a storm wrecked the bridges he had built across the Hellespont, the Persian king Xerxes ordered the sea itself to be given 300 lashes. His vast invasion of Greece was then broken at the sea battle of Salamis.
The mirror
Again, the Greeks told this story themselves. To them, Xerxes was a living example of hubris, the pride that invites its own punishment.
Know yourself, meaning know your limits. (Delphi.)
The ancient warning
Is there anything today that people try to "punish" or control that cannot be controlled?
Alexander the Great · 356 to 323 BC
The hero who chooses glory
The myth
Achilles was offered a long, quiet life or a short one with glory that would last for ever. He chose glory, and died young at Troy.
What happened: Alexander the Great
Alexander modelled himself on Achilles. He was said to keep a copy of the Iliad by his bed, and when he reached Troy he honoured Achilles' tomb while his closest friend Hephaestion honoured Patroclus's. He conquered an empire from Greece to India and died at 32.
The mirror
Alexander did not just resemble Achilles; he chose to live out the myth. Stories do not only describe us, they can script us.
The Iliad itself: a short life with lasting fame, or a long life forgotten.
The ancient warning
Which stories, films or heroes have shaped how you see yourself?
Churchill in the wilderness · 1930s
The warning nobody believes
The myth
Cassandra could see the future, but was cursed so that no one would believe her. She warned Troy about the Wooden Horse. Nobody listened.
What happened: Churchill in the wilderness
Out of office through most of the 1930s, Winston Churchill warned again and again that Germany was rearming and that Britain must prepare. Many dismissed him as an alarmist until war came in 1939.
The mirror
Cassandra's curse is not that she is wrong. It is that being right is not enough when the truth is unwelcome.
The Trojans themselves: Laocoon warned them too, and they still pulled the horse inside.
The ancient warning
Why are warnings so easy to ignore? What makes a warning believable?
The Titanic · 1912
Unsinkable
The myth
In myth, boasting that you are beyond the reach of the gods is the surest way to meet them. Niobe boasted she had more children than the goddess Leto, and lost them all.
What happened: The Titanic
The Titanic was famous as practically unsinkable. On her first voyage she received several warnings about ice, kept up her speed, and carried lifeboats for only about half the people on board. More than 1,500 people died.
The mirror
The name tells you the Greeks were in the room: the Titans were the old gods who thought they could never fall.
Nothing in excess. And never boast that the gods cannot touch you.
The ancient warning
Where do we still hear the word "unsinkable", or something like it?
Spain and the silver of the Americas · 1500s
The golden touch
The myth
King Midas wished that everything he touched would turn to gold, and then found he could not eat or drink.
What happened: Spain and the silver of the Americas
In the 1500s Spain shipped home vast amounts of silver from the Americas. Yet prices soared, industry at home struggled, and the Spanish Crown still went bankrupt several times.
The mirror
Midas learned that gold is not the same as wealth. Having more money is not the same as being better off.
Fools! They do not know how much more the half is than the whole. (Hesiod, Works and Days.)
The ancient warning
What is the difference between money and wealth?
The emperor Nero · Died AD 68
In love with his own reflection
The myth
Narcissus fell in love with his own reflection and wasted away staring at it.
What happened: The emperor Nero
The Roman emperor Nero saw himself as a great artist. He sang and performed on stage and competed in contests that he was always allowed to win. As his empire turned against him, the historian Suetonius records his last words: "What an artist dies in me!"
The mirror
Narcissus needs a pool; Nero had a whole court to reflect him back. Flattery is a mirror too.
Know yourself. Seeing yourself is not the same thing.
The ancient warning
Who are the people who tell you the truth, rather than what you want to hear?
The trial of Galileo · 1633
Punished for bringing light
The myth
Prometheus stole fire from the gods and gave it to people. Zeus chained him to a rock as punishment.
What happened: The trial of Galileo
Galileo used his telescope to argue that the Earth moves around the Sun. The Inquisition put him on trial, forced him to take it back, and kept him under house arrest for the rest of his life.
The mirror
Those in power do not always welcome new knowledge, especially when it threatens their authority. In the end, the fire could not be put back.
Prometheus's own name means "forethought".
The ancient warning
Can you think of other discoveries that people first refused to accept?
The first atomic bomb · 1945
What cannot be put back
The myth
Pandora opened the jar the gods had given her, and every evil flew out into the world. Only hope stayed inside.
What happened: The first atomic bomb
On 16 July 1945, scientists tested the first atomic bomb in the New Mexico desert. Within weeks, two Japanese cities had been destroyed. The knowledge could never be unlearned.
The mirror
Some discoveries cannot be undone. The myth asks what we should do once the jar is open, and suggests that hope is what we must keep.
Epimetheus, whose name means "afterthought", accepted Pandora without thinking ahead.
The ancient warning
If you could not un-invent something, how would you decide whether to invent it?
The fall of Constantinople · 1453
Defending the city you cannot save
The myth
Hector knew Troy would fall. He fought for it anyway, and died defending its walls.
What happened: The fall of Constantinople
In 1453 the Ottoman army besieged Constantinople, the last great city of the Roman Empire, with vastly greater numbers. The last emperor, Constantine XI, refused to flee and died in the final assault.
The mirror
Some of history's most admired figures are the ones who lost. We remember Hector more kindly than Achilles.
Hector in the Iliad: he knows Troy will fall one day, and goes out to fight for it anyway.
The ancient warning
Why do we sometimes admire the people who lose more than the people who win?
Shackleton and the Endurance · 1914 to 1917
The long way home
The myth
Odysseus spent ten years getting home from Troy, through storms, monsters and temptation, keeping going by wit and endurance.
What happened: Shackleton and the Endurance
When his ship Endurance was crushed by Antarctic ice, Ernest Shackleton led his men across the ice, then sailed a small open boat 800 miles through the Southern Ocean to fetch help. Every one of the 28 men on his ship survived.
The mirror
Odysseus loses all his men. Shackleton saved all of his. The mirror shows what leadership adds to endurance.
Odysseus to himself, in the Odyssey: bear up, my heart, you have endured worse than this.
The ancient warning
What makes a good leader in a crisis?
Fabius the Delayer · 217 BC
Winning by waiting
The myth
Penelope held off more than a hundred suitors for years by weaving a shroud by day and secretly unpicking it by night.
What happened: Fabius the Delayer
After Hannibal crushed Roman armies in Italy, the general Fabius Maximus refused to fight him head on, wearing him down instead. He was mocked as "the Delayer". After another disaster at Cannae, Rome went back to his strategy, and it worked.
The mirror
Patience can be a weapon. Both Penelope and Fabius were underestimated because they did not seem to be doing anything.
Penelope's loom: the work that is undone is part of the plan.
The ancient warning
When is waiting the bravest choice?
The Wars of the Roses · 1455 to 1487
The curse that runs in families
The myth
In the house of Atreus, each murder demanded revenge, generation after generation, until Athena ended the cycle with a trial instead of another killing.
What happened: The Wars of the Roses
For thirty years the royal houses of Lancaster and York fought for the English throne, with kings, princes and nobles killed in turn. It ended when Henry VII, after winning at Bosworth, married Elizabeth of York and joined the two roses.
The mirror
Revenge cycles do not end by one side winning. They end when someone finds a new way to settle things: a court for Orestes, a marriage for the Tudors.
Aeschylus, the Oresteia: the Furies become the Kindly Ones once justice replaces revenge.
The ancient warning
How can a cycle of revenge be broken, in families, schools or countries?
Operation Mincemeat · 1943
The gift that is a trap
The myth
The Greeks left a giant wooden horse outside Troy as a "gift", with soldiers hidden inside. The Trojans pulled it in themselves.
What happened: Operation Mincemeat
In 1943 British intelligence floated a dead man, dressed as an officer and carrying fake secret letters, off the coast of Spain. The papers suggested the Allies would invade Greece and Sardinia. Germany moved forces accordingly, and the Allies landed in Sicily.
The mirror
The best deceptions let the enemy do the work. The Trojans and the Germans both believed what they found because they found it themselves.
Laocoon: I fear the Greeks, even when they bring gifts. (Virgil, Aeneid.)
The ancient warning
Why are we more likely to trust information we think we discovered ourselves?